PREDICTION FOR THE YEAR 2024-

PREDICTION FOR THE YEAR 2024- 
By Bernard Bujold -
It's traditional to start a new year with predictions... 
I'd like to make three for 2024! 

1. Donald J. Trump will be re-elected President of the United States on Tuesday, November 5, 2024; 

2. Artificial Intelligence will take center stage in our daily lives, becoming totally inescapable; 

3. Working from home will continue to dominate economic life, and office space will have to change vocation. 

Clearly, the election of Donald Trump, if it comes to pass, will not be active until January 2025, but the political chessboard will take on its full shape in 2024, influencing global politics until 2030, the end of this decade. 
In my opinion, the world will be more polarized than ever in 2024 and beyond. Power on the planet will be divided into four major parties, each of which cannot be ignored. We can assume that Vladimir Putin will be President of Russia until 2030, and for this reason, Russia and China with their allies on one side will become the most influential; the inward-looking United States will form the second pole, while Europe will form a third global pole. Then there will remain a fourth political pole, isolated from the other three, but significant in military power: countries like Iran, North Korea, and their allies. Israel will have to hold on to one of the planet's powers because no survival will be possible outside the four global poles. For the coming year, as far as Canada is concerned, Pierre Poilièvre's growing popularity brings back the possibility of a Stephen Harper style of governance, after the October 2025 election, if Justin Trudeau waits until the deadline for a Canadian election. Let's not forget that he is a minority government, and his survival depends entirely on the support of the NDP. 
In Quebec, François Legault doesn't have to call a general election until October 2026, i.e. not for another three years. We'll have to see whether the other parties become viable alternatives by then, which isn't the case now, despite Legault's steep decline in popularity and Paul St-Pierre Plamondon's great popularity. Plamondon's popularity, however, is too far in advance of the election, as Quebecers generally vote according to the political climate that precedes the year before the vote. Plamondon reminds me of Mario Dumont in 2007 when the polls projected him as premier, but he narrowly failed to win 41 seats against Jean Charest's 48. Plamondon's handicap will be the separation of Quebec, a political goal that has never been accepted by the majority of Quebecers. 
It's obviously something to follow, and sometimes I'm wrong... 
For now, on this January 1st, I wish you all a Happy New Year 2024! Lots of love, and above all, happiness! 
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