THE SEARCH FOR THE MAGIC STICK -
By Bernard Bujold -
With less than four months to go before Quebec’s provincial elections on October 5, it must be acknowledged that none of the five leaders stands out from the pack of “racehorses” in the stable. It’s a race with no clear favorites…
To win an election, you have to be like a salesperson and give the impression that you’re offering more than the others. This impression doesn’t have to be based on reality, but voters need to be won over by a symbol, a style, and develop an attraction to one of the leaders. That’s not currently the case for any of the leaders in the running.
I remember Jack Layton’s election in Quebec during the federal election on May 2, 2011. Thanks to his charismatic personality and, above all, his walking cane, which he raised in the air to greet the crowd just as a rock singer would have done... He swept aside Gilles Duceppe, who was offering a much more serious platform. Layton won 59 of Quebec’s 75 seats, even though many of his candidates were “straw candidates.” Right now, all five Quebec party leaders could use Jack’s magic cane…
In my view, there are three possible scenarios for the 2026 election:
1. It will be a dead-heat election with a completely split result and a minority government (a sort of photo finish);
2. According to some political observers, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney could, discreetly, play the role of “kingmaker,” particularly regarding the Parti Québécois’s referendum platform. The question is whether he would support Charles Milliard, who shares his political allegiance, or Christine Fréchette of the CAQ, whose style he likes and with whom he gets along particularly well;
3. An unforeseen event (such as a scandal or the creation of a media crisis) could be revealed, drawing attention and disrupting the rhythm, which would allow one of the candidates to break away from the pack (the question of the ballot box).
Officially, the elections on Monday, October 5, have not yet been called. The campaign will not officially begin until the National Assembly is dissolved by the Lieutenant Governor at the request of the Premier. In accordance with the Quebec Election Act, a campaign period lasts 33 to 39 days. The official call for the election will therefore take place between late August and early September 2026. A new poll was published this morning (June 10) in La Presse confirming this lack of a clear frontrunner.
To be continued! SEE POLL REPORT
https://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/2026-06-10/sondage-synopsis-la-presse/le-plq-chute-la-caq-remonte-encore.php
By Bernard Bujold -
With less than four months to go before Quebec’s provincial elections on October 5, it must be acknowledged that none of the five leaders stands out from the pack of “racehorses” in the stable. It’s a race with no clear favorites…
To win an election, you have to be like a salesperson and give the impression that you’re offering more than the others. This impression doesn’t have to be based on reality, but voters need to be won over by a symbol, a style, and develop an attraction to one of the leaders. That’s not currently the case for any of the leaders in the running.
I remember Jack Layton’s election in Quebec during the federal election on May 2, 2011. Thanks to his charismatic personality and, above all, his walking cane, which he raised in the air to greet the crowd just as a rock singer would have done... He swept aside Gilles Duceppe, who was offering a much more serious platform. Layton won 59 of Quebec’s 75 seats, even though many of his candidates were “straw candidates.” Right now, all five Quebec party leaders could use Jack’s magic cane…
In my view, there are three possible scenarios for the 2026 election:
1. It will be a dead-heat election with a completely split result and a minority government (a sort of photo finish);
2. According to some political observers, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney could, discreetly, play the role of “kingmaker,” particularly regarding the Parti Québécois’s referendum platform. The question is whether he would support Charles Milliard, who shares his political allegiance, or Christine Fréchette of the CAQ, whose style he likes and with whom he gets along particularly well;
3. An unforeseen event (such as a scandal or the creation of a media crisis) could be revealed, drawing attention and disrupting the rhythm, which would allow one of the candidates to break away from the pack (the question of the ballot box).
Officially, the elections on Monday, October 5, have not yet been called. The campaign will not officially begin until the National Assembly is dissolved by the Lieutenant Governor at the request of the Premier. In accordance with the Quebec Election Act, a campaign period lasts 33 to 39 days. The official call for the election will therefore take place between late August and early September 2026. A new poll was published this morning (June 10) in La Presse confirming this lack of a clear frontrunner.
To be continued! SEE POLL REPORT
https://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/2026-06-10/sondage-synopsis-la-presse/le-plq-chute-la-caq-remonte-encore.php
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