By Bernard Bujold-
For over a month, since the end of August, I've been sharing with my immediate circle my prediction that Donald Trump will win the November 5, 2024 election for President of the United States with between 300 and 312 electoral votes.
I'm making this prediction based on several observations!
First, media polls place Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in a tie, but this is misleading because media polls are unreliable, as they don't include a large enough number of voters.
In my opinion, the true polls are the internal ones of the two parties, the Republicans and the Democrats. These internal polls are not public, but if you look at the public behavior of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, you can see that Trump and his team are calm and seem confident of winning.
In contrast, Kamala Harris and her team seem nervous and worried that they're no further ahead and that they can't dominate the election campaign in any meaningful way, despite their best efforts.
Their panic manifests itself in the fact that their media strategies and political programs are constantly changing and following a philosophy contrary to the original one of their party. The latest proof of their panic is to agree to an interview with Fox News, a right-wing media outlet, something the Democrats have never done in the past.
On the other hand, Joe Biden in 2020 had much higher media polls than Kamala Harris but won only by a narrow margin.
Hillary Clinton in 2016 also had higher polls than Harris, but less than Biden, and lost the election. Clinton had won the popular vote but lost because of the state voting system (232 Clinton - 306 Trump).
In politics, you have momentum, either up or down, but the incumbent in power, here Kamala Harris and the Democrats, must never plateau and be stationary.
Harris gained momentum in the weeks after Joe Biden's resignation, but she has been plateauing for several weeks now, on a par with Trump, who is managing daily to slightly increase his lead in several key states.
This situation clearly shows that Harris is not succeeding in getting ahead of his opponent and that on Election Day, Donald Trump will win by a narrow margin with the undecideds, as he has a continual slight upward momentum compared to Harris, who is stationary.
In conclusion, in my opinion, the situation totally resembles the one of the 2016 election, hence my prediction of a victory for Trump with between 300 and 312 grand electors.
To be continued...
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