By Bernard Bujold -
Politics is ultimately a game of chance.
According to the science of polls, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon and his Parti Québécois should win the next election on October 5, 2026, but any other result is also possible...
If Pablo Rodriguez hadn't been the victim of a violent putsch started in November 2025, with his notoriety and, above all, Ottawa's support, he could have edged ahead of the PQ. We'll have to see how the new Liberal leader fares.
Of course, there's Éric Duhaime, but despite his popularity, he seems to have the same handicap as Maxime Bernier, and his inability to concentrate votes by riding and get MPs elected.
Québec solidaire is a party that is not an option in the race for power.
With François Legault's resignation, it's clear to me that no member of his party can take over and deliver a victory.
There is, however, a secret card, a sort of “JOKER” card, which might enable the CAQ to win the next (minority) election.
The Joker would be the arrival of Mario Dumont, creator of the Action Démocratique, a party that is one of the founding parties of the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ). The two Quebec political parties merged in February 2012, with the ADQ being absorbed by the CAQ to form a political bloc under the aegis of François Legault. Dumont would shake things up completely.
Dumont says he doesn't want to return to politics, but he wouldn't be the first politician to change his mind...
Dumont's arrival as savior would copy Mark Carney in Ottawa (2025), Jean Charest in the PLQ (1998), and Lucien Bouchard in the PQ (1995).
If Dumont refuses to lead the CAQ, the party will have to find another "Joker", or else the PQ will become Quebec's minority government.
To be continued!
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